Top Day Recommendations
12.01.11
Welcome to the end of the year. Quiet this morning after the biggest three day rally since 09. Drilling deeper, the rally was a quantum revaluation based on the basis cut on the swap lines and the lower of the reserve requirement by the Chinese. The market shot higher then flat lined on low volume. The low volume suggests short covering. The liquidity add is fine, it shows cooperation and something proactive. I think that when the Germans went to auction recently and could only sell 70% of the issue, fears of a credit market lockup in the Euro Zone intensified. It doesn’t solve the solvency issue. Also, the Chinese reduction of the reserve requirement means that their economy is slowing. This isn’t good news for the Euro Zone.
Week of November 28 - December 02
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com Briefing.com | Prior | Revised | |
| Forecast | Consensus | From | ||||||
| Nov | 10:00 | New Home Sales | Oct | 310K | 312K | 313K | ||
| 28 | ||||||||
| Nov | 09:00 | Case-Shiller 20-city | Sep | -3.0% | -3.0% | -3.80% | ||
| 29 | Index | |||||||
| Nov | 10:00 | Consumer Confidence | Nov | 44.0 | 43.0 | 39.80 | ||
| 29 | ||||||||
| Nov | 10:00 | FHFA Housing Price | Sep | NA | NA | -0.1% | ||
| 29 | Index | |||||||
| Nov | 07:00 | MBA Mortgage Index | 11/26 | NA | NA | -1.2% | ||
| 30 | ||||||||
| Nov | 07:30 | Challenger Job Cuts | Nov | NA | NA | 12.6% | ||
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com Briefing.com | Prior | Revised | |
| Forecast | Consensus | From | ||||||
| 30 | ||||||||
| Nov | 08:15 | ADP Employment | Nov | 110K | 120K | 110K | ||
| 30 | Change | |||||||
| Nov | 08:30 | Productivity-Rev. | Q3 | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.1% | ||
| 30 | ||||||||
| Nov | 08:30 | Unit Labor Costs | Q3 | -1.9% | -2.1% | -2.4% | ||
| 30 | ||||||||
| Nov | 09:45 | Chicago PMI | Nov | 56.0 | 57.5 | 58.4 | ||
| 30 | ||||||||
| Nov | 10:00 | Pending Home Sales | Sep | -2.0% | 0.1% | -4.60% | ||
| 30 | ||||||||
| Nov | 10:30 | Crude Inventories | 11/26 | NA | NA | - | ||
| 30 | 6.219M | |||||||
| Nov | 14:00 | Fed's Beige Book | Nov | |||||
| 30 | ||||||||
| Dec | 08:30 | Initial Claims | 11/26 | 395K | 390K | 393K | ||
| 01 | ||||||||
| Dec | 08:30 | Continuing Claims | 11/19 | 3650K | 3650K | 3691K | ||
| 01 | ||||||||
| Dec | 10:00 | ISM Index | Nov | 50.5 | 51.0 | 50.8 | ||
| 01 | ||||||||
| Dec | 10:00 | Construction | Oct | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | ||
| 01 | Spending | |||||||
| Dec | 15:00 | Auto Sales | Dec | NA | NA | 4.27M | ||
| 01 | ||||||||
| Dec | 15:00 | Truck Sales | Dec | NA | NA | 5.84M | ||
| 01 | ||||||||
| Dec | 08:30 | Nonfarm Payrolls | Nov | 75K | 118K | 80K | ||
| 02 | ||||||||
| Dec | 08:30 | Nonfarm Private | Nov | 110K | 133K | 104K | ||
| 02 | Payrolls | |||||||
| Dec | 08:30 | Unemployment Rate | Nov | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | ||
| 02 | ||||||||
| Dec | 08:30 | Hourly Earnings | Nov | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | ||
| 02 | ||||||||
| Dec | 08:30 | Average Workweek | Nov | 34.3 | 34.3 | 34.3 | ||
| 02 | ||||||||
Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend
U is Up
D is Down
PRD is Potential Reversal Day
S2 is Weekly strong support
S1 is Weekly good support
DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Weekly Good Resistance
R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance
Levels are for the most active futures contract
Daily Support and Resistance
| Trend | WS2 | WS1 | DS | DR | WR1 | WR2 | |
| Dec ES | U | 1108.50 | 1131.00 | 1205 | 1267 | 1192.50 | 1231.50 |
| Dec | D | 2067.50 | 2107.50 | 2229 | 2328 | 2215.75 | 2284.00 |
| Nasdaq | |||||||
| Dec | PRD | 127.45 | 128.09 | 128.18 | 129.61 | 129.85 | 130.97 |
| Yen | (U) | ||||||
| Dec EC | PRD | 129.83 | 131.10 | 132.85 | 135.60 | 134.68 | 136.97 |
| (U) | |||||||
| Mar 10 | PRD | 129.05 | 129.18 | 128.26 | 129.29 | 130.16 | 131.01 |
| Year | (D) | ||||||
| Mar 30 | PRD | 141.18 | 142.19 | 140.13 | 142.28 | 144.31 | 146.10 |
| Year | (D) | ||||||
| Mar | U | 10.65 | 10.90 | 11.23 | 11.57 | 11.62 | 12.09 |
| Soybea | |||||||
| ns | |||||||
| March | U | 5.68 | 5.79 | 5.96 | 6.17 | 6.086 | 6.29 |
| Corn | |||||||
| Feb | U | 1637.5 | 1663.00 | 1719 | 1768 | 1721.50 | 1754.5 |
| Gold | |||||||
| Mar | U | 29.25 | 30.14 | 31.61 | 33.49 | 32.52 | 34.01 |
| Silver | |||||||
| Mar | U | 310.30 | 319.50 | 337 | 370 | 340.20 | 351.70 |
| Copper | |||||||
| Jan | U | 93.11 | 94.94 | 98.95 | 101.70 | 98.65 | 100.53 |
| Crude | |||||||
N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.
Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But whatever you do, stop thinking about any other alternative and use Stops.
********************************************
Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.
Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Charles Kespert
***********************
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE
MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.