12.04.2013
Top Day Recommendations
One day ahead of the OPEC meeting crude oil rallied with authority. The market was oversold with WTI down 2.2% and the overall market down 7 out of the last 8 weeks. Brent seems well priced (for the Saudis) at approximately the 110 level. Any threats to supplies can be easily filled by them.
OPEC should keep their 30 million barrel a day target in place. Stocks continued to look heavy yesterday. The Yen rallied against just about everything but the central bank remains highly accommodative.
Overnight, the Aussie dollar slid to a 3 month low as the economy there grew at a less than expected rate. Euro strength continues while the Canadian dollar was under pressure in front of a central bank rate decision.
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Week of December 02 - December 06 |
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Date |
ET |
Release |
For |
Actual |
Briefing.com Forecast |
Briefing.com Consensus |
Prior |
Revised From |
|
|
Dec 02 |
10:00 |
ISM Index |
Nov |
|
55.0 |
55.5 |
56.4 |
|
|
|
Dec 02 |
10:00 |
Construction Spending |
Sep |
|
0.3% |
0.4% |
0.6% |
|
|
|
Dec 02 |
10:00 |
Construction Spending |
Oct |
|
0.3% |
0.3% |
NA |
|
|
|
Dec 03 |
14:00 |
Auto Sales |
Nov |
|
NA |
NA |
5.4M |
|
|
|
Dec 03 |
14:00 |
Truck Sales |
Nov |
|
NA |
NA |
6.5M |
|
|
|
Dec 04 |
07:00 |
MBA Mortgage Index |
11/30 |
|
NA |
NA |
-0.3% |
|
|
|
Dec 04 |
08:15 |
ADP Employment Change |
Nov |
|
175K |
160K |
130K |
|
|
|
Dec 04 |
08:30 |
Trade Balance |
Oct |
|
-$40.5B |
-$40.5B |
- |
|
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|
Date |
ET |
Release |
For |
Actual |
Briefing.com Forecast |
Briefing.com Consensus |
Prior |
Revised From |
|
Dec 04 |
10:00 |
New Home Sales |
Sep |
|
410K |
432K |
421K |
|
|
Dec 04 |
10:00 |
New Home Sales |
Oct |
|
410K |
420K |
NA |
|
|
Dec 04 |
10:00 |
ISM Services |
Nov |
|
55.0 |
55.0 |
55.4 |
|
|
Dec 04 |
10:30 |
Crude Inventories |
11/30 |
|
NA |
NA |
2.953M |
|
|
Dec 04 |
14:00 |
Fed's Beige Book |
Dec |
|
NA |
NA |
NA |
|
|
Dec 05 |
07:30 |
Challenger Job Cuts |
Nov |
|
NA |
NA |
-4.2% |
|
|
Dec 05 |
08:30 |
Initial Claims |
11/30 |
|
335K |
330K |
316K |
|
|
Dec 05 |
08:30 |
Continuing Claims |
11/23 |
|
2850K |
2850K |
2776K |
|
|
Dec 05 |
08:30 |
GDP - Second Estimate |
Q3 |
|
3.1% |
3.0% |
2.8% |
|
|
Dec 05 |
08:30 |
GDP Deflator - Second Estimate |
Q3 |
|
1.8% |
1.9% |
1.9% |
|
|
Dec 05 |
10:00 |
Factory Orders |
Oct |
|
-1.0% |
-1.0% |
1.7% |
|
|
Dec 05 |
10:30 |
Natural Gas Inventories |
11/30 |
|
NA |
NA |
-13 bcf |
|
|
Dec 06 |
08:30 |
Nonfarm Payrolls |
Nov |
|
185K |
188K |
204K |
|
|
Dec 06 |
08:30 |
Nonfarm Private Payrolls |
Nov |
|
200K |
200K |
212K |
|
|
Dec 06 |
08:30 |
Unemployment Rate |
Nov |
|
7.2% |
7.2% |
7.3% |
|
|
Dec 06 |
08:30 |
Hourly Earnings |
Nov |
|
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
|
|
Dec 06 |
08:30 |
Average Workweek |
Nov |
|
34.5 |
34.5 |
34.4 |
|
|
Dec 06 |
08:30 |
Personal Income |
Oct |
|
0.5% |
0.3% |
0.5% |
|
|
Dec 06 |
08:30 |
Personal Spending |
Oct |
|
0.3% |
0.3% |
0.2% |
|
|
Dec 06 |
08:30 |
PCE Prices - Core |
Oct |
|
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
|
Dec 06 |
09:55 |
Mich Sentiment |
Dec |
|
77.0 |
75.1 |
75.1 |
|
|
Dec 06 |
15:00 |
Consumer Credit |
Oct |
|
$15.0B |
$15.8B |
$13.7B |
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MARKET PLACE
Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend U is Up
D is Down
PRD is Potential Reversal Day S2 is Weekly strong support S1 is Weekly good support DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Weekly Good Resistance and is calculated once a week on Sunday night
R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance and is calculated once a week on Sunday night
Levels are for the most active futures contract
Daily Support and Resistance
|
|
Trend |
WS2 |
WS1 |
DS |
DR |
WR1 |
WR2 |
|
Dec ES |
D |
1791 |
1797.50 |
1785 |
1800 |
1811 |
1819 |
|
Dec Nasdaq |
PRD(D) |
3391 |
3439 |
3465 |
3487 |
3515 |
3544 |
|
Dec Yen |
D |
134.33 |
136.10 |
96.933 |
98.26 |
135.64 |
136.99 |
|
Dec EC |
U |
134.33 |
136.10 |
135.38 |
136.79 |
135.64 |
136.99 |
|
Mar 10 Year Note |
D |
126.01 |
126.11 |
124.27 |
125.08 |
127.00 |
127.11 |
|
Mar 30 Year Bond |
U |
131.04 |
131.21 |
129.25 |
130.17 |
132.24 |
133.10 |
|
Jan Soybeans |
PRD(D) |
12.97 |
13.11 |
13.11 |
13.28 |
13.48 |
13.60 |
|
Mar Corn |
U |
4.15 |
4.19 |
4.25 |
4.38 |
4.31 |
4.37 |
|
Feb Gold |
D |
1213.20 |
1231.80 |
1215 |
1226 |
1236.0 |
1276 |
|
March Silver |
D |
19.27 |
19.65 |
18.91 |
19.27 |
20.38 |
20.73 |
|
March Copper |
PRD(D) |
313 |
316 |
315 |
319 |
325 |
330 |
|
Jan Crude |
U |
92.00 |
93.40 |
94.15 |
98.84 |
95.80 |
96.90 |
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