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German factory orders higher than expected

Top Day Recommendations

12.06.11

No economic releases this morning. The market is still shaking off the threatened S+P downgrade if Germany doesn’t become more active at Friday’s meeting. S+P basically said that if a deal isn’t reached the chance of a recession increases by 50%. The way the market is trading this morning, it’s apparent that it wants to believe in a swift solution. The apparently desired combination would be hawkish fiscal policy and dovish monetary policy. There are two hurdles, one is the German belief that dovish monetary policy and a slashing of interest rates will lead to inflation while the second problem remains unfunded benefits programs. Stay tuned. This is the quiet before the storm.

German factory orders higher than expected.

Week of December 05 - December 09

Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Briefing.com Prior Revised
          Forecast Consensus   From
Dec 10:00 Factory Orders Oct   -0.6% -0.4% 0.3%  
05    
               
Dec 10:00 ISM Services Nov   53.0 53.4 52.9  
05    
               
Dec 07:00 MBA Mortgage Index 12/03   NA NA -11.7%  
07    
               
Dec 10:30 Crude Inventories 12/03   NA NA 3.932M  
07    
               
Dec 15:00 Consumer Credit Oct   $7.0B $7.0B $7.4B  
07    
               
Dec 08:30 Initial Claims 12/03   400K 395K 402K  
08    
               
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Briefing.com Prior Revised
          Forecast Consensus   From
Dec 08:30 Continuing Claims 11/26   3700K 3700K 3740K  
08    
               
Dec 10:00 Wholesale Oct   0.2% 0.2% -0.1%  
08 Inventories    
             
Dec 08:30 Trade Balance Oct   -$44.0B -$44.0B -  
09   $43.1B  
             
Dec 09:55 Mich Sentiment Dec   63.0 65.0 64.1  
09    
               

Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.

Legend

U is Up

D is Down

PRD is Potential Reversal Day

S2 is Weekly strong support

S1 is Weekly good support

DS is Daily Support

DR is Daily Resistance

R1 is Weekly Good Resistance

R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance

Levels are for the most active futures contract

    Daily Support and Resistance  
               
  Trend WS2 WS1 DS DR WR1 WR2
Dec ES U 1131.50 1187.50 1238 1264 1281 1318
           
Dec D 2108 2206 2308 2342 2372.50 2442
           
Nasdaq              
Dec D 126.80 127.47 128.20 128.87 129.11 130.08
           
Yen              
Dec EC PRD 131.14 132.59 133.06 134.67 135.50 136.95
           
  (D)            
Mar 10 D 127.17 128.19 129.06 129.26 130.24 131.26
           
Year              
               
Mar 30 D 137.17 139.22 140.23 142.07 144.01 146.07
           
Year              
Mar P 11.07 11.26 11.26 11.52 11.39 11.47
           
Soybea              
ns              
March D 5.78 5.86 5.86 5.99 6.09 6.24
           
Corn              
Feb P 1653.9 1701.550 1700.4 1755.00 1781 1814
           
Gold              
Mar D 29.89 31.29 31.28 32.99 33.91 35.13
           
Silver              
Mar P 317 338 350 365 371 383
           
Copper              
Jan P 95.38 98.25 99.02 102.20 103.97 104.62
           
Crude              
               

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.

Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.

Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But whatever you do, stop thinking about any other alternative and use Stops.

********************************************

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.

Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Charles Kespert

***********************

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FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.