12.06.2013
Top Day Market News
The Big One. Non Farm Payrolls. To taper or not to taper. The market finds itself in a sensitive spot going into this number (can it be any other way?). Heard that it was the first five session decline since 1996. That’s difficult to believe.
At any rate, The Street is looking for 185K in NFP. Stronger than that will intensify the taper talk while a weaker number will suggest QE Infinity.
Be nimble. Be as flat as you can be. Potentially a quantum change day.
ECB left rates unchanged yesterday and this took that currency higher. There was no fresh news with the BOE rate decision and the currency, unfortunately, sagged. Current interest rate structure doesn’t favor metals. Only an abysmal jobs number can change this structure.
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Week of December 02 - December 06 |
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|
Date |
ET |
Release |
For |
Actual |
Briefing.com Forecast |
Briefing.com Consensus |
Prior |
Revised From |
|
|
Dec 02 |
10:00 |
ISM Index |
Nov |
|
55.0 |
55.5 |
56.4 |
|
|
|
Dec 02 |
10:00 |
Construction Spending |
Sep |
|
0.3% |
0.4% |
0.6% |
|
|
|
Dec 02 |
10:00 |
Construction Spending |
Oct |
|
0.3% |
0.3% |
NA |
|
|
|
Dec 03 |
14:00 |
Auto Sales |
Nov |
|
NA |
NA |
5.4M |
|
|
|
Date |
ET |
Release |
For |
Actual |
Briefing.com Forecast |
Briefing.com Consensus |
Prior |
Revised From |
|
Dec 03 |
14:00 |
Truck Sales |
Nov |
|
NA |
NA |
6.5M |
|
|
Dec 04 |
07:00 |
MBA Mortgage Index |
11/30 |
|
NA |
NA |
-0.3% |
|
|
Dec 04 |
08:15 |
ADP Employment Change |
Nov |
|
175K |
160K |
130K |
|
|
Dec 04 |
08:30 |
Trade Balance |
Oct |
|
-$40.5B |
-$40.5B |
-$41.8B |
|
|
Dec 04 |
10:00 |
New Home Sales |
Sep |
|
410K |
432K |
421K |
|
|
Dec 04 |
10:00 |
New Home Sales |
Oct |
|
410K |
420K |
NA |
|
|
Dec 04 |
10:00 |
ISM Services |
Nov |
|
55.0 |
55.0 |
55.4 |
|
|
Dec 04 |
10:30 |
Crude Inventories |
11/30 |
|
NA |
NA |
2.953M |
|
|
Dec 04 |
14:00 |
Fed's Beige Book |
Dec |
|
NA |
NA |
NA |
|
|
Dec 05 |
07:30 |
Challenger Job Cuts |
Nov |
|
NA |
NA |
-4.2% |
|
|
Dec 05 |
08:30 |
Initial Claims |
11/30 |
|
335K |
330K |
316K |
|
|
Dec 05 |
08:30 |
Continuing Claims |
11/23 |
|
2850K |
2850K |
2776K |
|
|
Dec 05 |
08:30 |
GDP - Second Estimate |
Q3 |
|
3.1% |
3.0% |
2.8% |
|
|
Dec 05 |
08:30 |
GDP Deflator - Second Estimate |
Q3 |
|
1.8% |
1.9% |
1.9% |
|
|
Dec 05 |
10:00 |
Factory Orders |
Oct |
|
-1.0% |
-1.0% |
1.7% |
|
|
Dec 05 |
10:30 |
Natural Gas Inventories |
11/30 |
|
NA |
NA |
-13 bcf |
|
|
Dec 06 |
08:30 |
Nonfarm Payrolls |
Nov |
|
185K |
188K |
204K |
|
|
Dec 06 |
08:30 |
Nonfarm Private Payrolls |
Nov |
|
200K |
200K |
212K |
|
|
Dec 06 |
08:30 |
Unemployment Rate |
Nov |
|
7.2% |
7.2% |
7.3% |
|
|
Dec 06 |
08:30 |
Hourly Earnings |
Nov |
|
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
|
|
Dec 06 |
08:30 |
Average Workweek |
Nov |
|
34.5 |
34.5 |
34.4 |
|
|
Dec 06 |
08:30 |
Personal Income |
Oct |
|
0.5% |
0.3% |
0.5% |
|
|
Dec 06 |
08:30 |
Personal Spending |
Oct |
|
0.3% |
0.3% |
0.2% |
|
|
Date |
ET |
Release |
For |
Actual |
Briefing.com Forecast |
Briefing.com Consensus |
Prior |
Revised From |
|
Dec 06 |
08:30 |
PCE Prices - Core |
Oct |
|
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
|
Dec 06 |
09:55 |
Mich Sentiment |
Dec |
|
77.0 |
75.1 |
75.1 |
|
|
Dec 06 |
15:00 |
Consumer Credit |
Oct |
|
$15.0B |
$15.8B |
$13.7B |
|
MARKET PLACE
Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend U is Up
D is Down
PRD is Potential Reversal Day S2 is Weekly strong support S1 is Weekly good support DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Weekly Good Resistance and is calculated once a week on Sunday night
R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance and is calculated once a week on Sunday nigh
Levels are for the most active futures contract
Daily Support and Resistance
|
|
Trend |
WS2 |
WS1 |
DS |
DR |
WR1 |
WR2 |
|
Dec ES |
D |
1791 |
1797.50 |
1779 |
1791 |
1811 |
1819 |
|
Dec Nasdaq |
U |
3391 |
3439 |
3497 |
3490 |
3515 |
3544 |
|
Dec Yen |
U |
134.33 |
136.10 |
97.33 |
98.62 |
135.64 |
136.99 |
|
Dec EC |
U |
134.33 |
136.10 |
135.86 |
137.21 |
135.64 |
136.99 |
|
Mar 10 Year Note |
D |
126.01 |
126.11 |
123.29 |
124.28 |
127.00 |
127.11 |
|
Mar 30 Year Bond |
PRD(D) |
131.04 |
131.21 |
128.11 |
129.11 |
132.24 |
133.10 |
|
Jan Soybeans |
U |
12.97 |
13.11 |
1308 |
1335 |
13.48 |
13.60 |
|
Mar Corn |
U |
4.15 |
4.19 |
427 |
437 |
4.31 |
4.37 |
|
Feb Gold |
D |
1213.20 |
1231.80 |
1203.5 |
1244 |
1236.0 |
1276 |
|
March Silver |
D |
19.27 |
19.65 |
19.00 |
20.00 |
20.38 |
20.73 |
|
March Copper |
U |
313 |
316 |
320 |
325 |
325 |
330 |
|
Jan Crude |
U |
92.00 |
93.40 |
96.98 |
9790 |
95.80 |
96.90 |
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