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ECB also considering interest rate cuts

Top Day Recommendations

12.07.11

It is a light economic calendar yet again today with just oil inventories out at 1030. Also we get consumer credit at three o’clock well after the European close.

The only blip overnight was news out of the ECB. They have lowered their standards for collateral to create new loans. In other words, they are allowing riskier assets into the credit pool. The pop to the market lasted all of 90 seconds. It did cause a swell in gold prices as the move is potentially inflationary and a devaluation of currency. ECB also considering interest rate cuts, a gold positive. Of course, a European recession would be a gold negative. Ten year notes are higher on a flight to quality. Crude is waiting around for the inventory numbers and the world waits for Friday’s European summit.

Week of December 05 - December 09

Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Briefing.com Prior Revised
          Forecast Consensus   From
Dec 10:00 Factory Orders Oct   -0.6% -0.4% 0.3%  
05    
               
Dec 10:00 ISM Services Nov   53.0 53.4 52.9  
05    
               
Dec 07:00 MBA Mortgage Index 12/03   NA NA -11.7%  
07    
               
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Briefing.com Prior Revised
          Forecast Consensus   From
Dec 10:30 Crude Inventories 12/03   NA NA 3.932M  
07    
               
Dec 15:00 Consumer Credit Oct   $7.0B $7.0B $7.4B  
07    
               
Dec 08:30 Initial Claims 12/03   400K 395K 402K  
08    
               
Dec 08:30 Continuing Claims 11/26   3700K 3700K 3740K  
08    
               
Dec 10:00 Wholesale Oct   0.2% 0.2% -0.1%  
08 Inventories    
             
Dec 08:30 Trade Balance Oct   -$44.0B -$44.0B -  
09   $43.1B  
             
Dec 09:55 Mich Sentiment Dec   63.0 65.0 64.1  
09    
               

Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.

Legend

U is Up

D is Down

PRD is Potential Reversal Day

S2 is Weekly strong support

S1 is Weekly good support

DS is Daily Support

DR is Daily Resistance

R1 is Weekly Good Resistance

R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance        
Levels are for the most active futures contract    
    Daily Support and Resistance  
               
  Trend WS2 WS1 DS DR WR1 WR2
Dec ES U 1131.50 1187.50 1250 1265.50 1281 1318
           
Dec PRD 2108 2206 2309 2338 2372.50 2442
           
Nasdaq (U)            
Dec PRD 126.80 127.47 128.29 128.87 129.11 130.08
           
Yen (U)            
Dec EC U 131.14 132.59 133.52 134.48 135.50 136.95
           
Mar 10 D 127.17 128.19 129.045 129.19 130.24 131.26
           
Year              
               
Mar 30 D 137.17 139.22 140.08 141.18 144.01 146.07
           
Year              
Mar U 11.07 11.26 11.324 11.44 11.39 11.47
           
Soybea              
ns              
March D 5.78 5.86 5.85 6.02 6.09 6.24
           
Corn              
Feb U 1653.9 1701.550 1712.7 1743 1781 1814
           
Gold              
Mar D 29.89 31.29 31.94 33.24 33.91 35.13
           
Silver              
Mar U 317 338 353 361 371 383
           
Copper              
Jan U 95.38 98.25 100.51 102.18 103.97 104.62
           
Crude              
               

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.

Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.

Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But whatever you do, stop thinking about any other alternative and use Stops.

********************************************

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.

Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Charles Kespert

***********************

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ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM

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