Top Day Recommendations
12.08.11
The market edges closer to the EU summit Friday in Brussels. What will be the result? Will the Euro be saved? Will Europe implode? The ECB should be cutting rates today to 1% but that is already baked into the market. Will there be a 900 billion dollar firewall thrown up around the peripherals? It seems that new ECB head Mario Draghi is eager to do what it takes but will the Germans go along? Can they repress their fears of hyper-inflation? Will there be a fiscal compact? Best guess is that they will come up with some working premise to get through the end of the year and the holidays. The gerrymandered result is more than likely going to disappoint the market. What is difficult to look past is the slowdown of the Chinese economy, the fact that Australia actually lost jobs and that Europe seems poised to enter a recession prompted in part by austerity measures. Ultimately, the core of the EU will survive all this but one of the peripherals, probably Greece will default.
Today is rollover day for stock index futures; yes, March will now be the front month going forward.
Week of December 05 - December 09
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com Briefing.com | Prior | Revised | |
| Forecast | Consensus | From | ||||||
| Dec | 10:00 | Factory Orders | Oct | -0.6% | -0.4% | 0.3% | ||
| 05 | ||||||||
| Dec | 10:00 | ISM Services | Nov | 53.0 | 53.4 | 52.9 | ||
| 05 | ||||||||
| Dec | 07:00 | MBA Mortgage Index | 12/03 | NA | NA | -11.7% | ||
| 07 | ||||||||
| Dec | 10:30 | Crude Inventories | 12/03 | NA | NA | 3.932M | ||
| 07 | ||||||||
| Dec | 15:00 | Consumer Credit | Oct | $7.0B | $7.0B | $7.4B | ||
| 07 | ||||||||
| Dec | 08:30 | Initial Claims | 12/03 | 400K | 395K | 402K | ||
| 08 | ||||||||
| Dec | 08:30 | Continuing Claims | 11/26 | 3700K | 3700K | 3740K | ||
| 08 | ||||||||
| Dec | 10:00 | Wholesale | Oct | 0.2% | 0.2% | -0.1% | ||
| 08 | Inventories | |||||||
| Dec | 08:30 | Trade Balance | Oct | -$44.0B | -$44.0B | - | ||
| 09 | $43.1B | |||||||
| Dec | 09:55 | Mich Sentiment | Dec | 63.0 | 65.0 | 64.1 | ||
| 09 | ||||||||
Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend
U is Up
D is Down
PRD is Potential Reversal Day
S2 is Weekly strong support
S1 is Weekly good support
DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Weekly Good Resistance
R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance
Levels are for the most active futures contract
| Daily Support and Resistance | |||||||
| Trend | WS2 | WS1 | DS | DR | WR1 | WR2 | |
| Mar | U | 1131.50 | 1187.50 | 1243.50 | 1267.50 | 1281 | 1318 |
| ES | |||||||
| Mar | PRD | 2108 | 2206 | 2291 | 2342 | 2372.50 | 2442 |
| Nasdaq | (U) | ||||||
| Dec | PRD | 126.80 | 127.47 | 128.61 | 128.89 | 129.11 | 130.08 |
| Yen | (U) | ||||||
| Dec EC | U | 131.14 | 132.59 | 133.46 | 134.49 | 135.50 | 136.95 |
| Mar 10 | D | 127.17 | 128.19 | 129.12 | 130.09 | 130.24 | 131.26 |
| Year | |||||||
| Mar 30 | D | 137.17 | 139.22 | 140.21 | 142.16 | 144.01 | 146.07 |
| Year | |||||||
| Mar | U | 11.07 | 11.26 | 11.27 | 11.47 | 11.39 | 11.47 |
| Soybea | |||||||
| ns | |||||||
| March | D | 5.78 | 5.86 | 5.81 | 5.99 | 6.09 | 6.24 |
| Corn | |||||||
| Feb | U | 1653.9 | 1701.550 | 1729 | 1753 | 1781 | 1814 |
| Gold | |||||||
| Mar | D | 29.89 | 31.29 | 32.30 | 32.90 | 33.91 | 35.13 |
| Silver | |||||||
| Mar | U | 317 | 338 | 351 | 360 | 371 | 383 |
| Copper | |||||||
| Jan | U | 95.38 | 98.25 | 99.46 | 101.73 | 103.97 | 104.62 |
| Crude | |||||||
N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.
Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.
Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But whatever you do, stop thinking about any other alternative and use Stops.
********************************************
Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.
Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Charles Kespert
***********************
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT
INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.