Top Day Recommendations
12.08.11
Well the first day of the summit to solve the European debt crisis didn’t go so well. The ECB cut rates but only by .25. Some radical economists thought that a bold cut by .75 was in order while many would have been satisfied by .50. Then Mario Draghi, after 15 summits in 23 months, said that he was misinterpreted last week and that the ECB will not or cannot be the buyer of last resort. This really caught the market in the chops and the tumble was on. This evening we also learn that the ECB will send money, 200 billion to the IMF and that a fiscal union or compact has been reached by 17, not the full 27 nations in the union. ECB will manage rescue funds. The financial transaction tax is off the table for the moment thanks to the British. This tax would have crippled the City. Also, the key banks will have to raise 115 billion in capital by mid-2012 (from where exactly?). As mentioned yesterday, the result of the summit would be a “sort of agreement” that would allow everyone to navigate year end and make it through the holidays ( a.k.a as muddle through) but not much else and that the agreement would disappoint the markets which were will eager to entertain “shock and awe” measures.
Week of December 05 - December 09
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com Briefing.com | Prior | Revised | |
| Forecast | Consensus | From | ||||||
| Dec | 10:00 | Factory Orders | Oct | -0.6% | -0.4% | 0.3% | ||
| 05 | ||||||||
| Dec | 10:00 | ISM Services | Nov | 53.0 | 53.4 | 52.9 | ||
| 05 | ||||||||
| Dec | 07:00 | MBA Mortgage Index | 12/03 | NA | NA | -11.7% | ||
| 07 | ||||||||
| Dec | 10:30 | Crude Inventories | 12/03 | NA | NA | 3.932M | ||
| 07 | ||||||||
| Dec | 15:00 | Consumer Credit | Oct | $7.0B | $7.0B | $7.4B | ||
| 07 | ||||||||
| Dec | 08:30 | Initial Claims | 12/03 | 400K | 395K | 402K | ||
| 08 | ||||||||
| Dec | 08:30 | Continuing Claims | 11/26 | 3700K | 3700K | 3740K | ||
| 08 | ||||||||
| Dec | 10:00 | Wholesale | Oct | 0.2% | 0.2% | -0.1% | ||
| 08 | Inventories | |||||||
| Dec | 08:30 | Trade Balance | Oct | -$44.0B | -$44.0B | - | ||
| 09 | $43.1B | |||||||
| Dec | 09:55 | Mich Sentiment | Dec | 63.0 | 65.0 | 64.1 | ||
| 09 | ||||||||
Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend
U is Up
D is Down
PRD is Potential Reversal Day
S2 is Weekly strong support
S1 is Weekly good support
DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Weekly Good Resistance
R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance
Levels are for the most active futures contract
| Daily Support and Resistance | |||||||
| Trend | WS2 | WS1 | DS | DR | WR1 | WR2 | |
| Mar | U | 1131.50 | 1187.50 | 1214.50 | 1240.25 | 1281 | 1318 |
| ES | |||||||
| Mar | D | 2108 | 2206 | 2258 | 2288 | 2372.50 | 2442 |
| Nasdaq | |||||||
| Dec | U | 126.80 | 127.47 | 128.29 | 129.45 | 129.11 | 130.08 |
| Yen | |||||||
| Dec EC | PRD | 131.14 | 132.59 | 132.62 | 134.35 | 135.50 | 136.95 |
| (D) | |||||||
| Mar 10 | PRD | 127.17 | 128.19 | 129.225 | 130.23 | 130.24 | 131.26 |
| Year | (U) | ||||||
| Mar 30 | PRD | 137.17 | 139.22 | 141.03 | 143.14 | 144.01 | 146.07 |
| Year | (U) | ||||||
| Mar | U | 11.07 | 11.26 | 11.33 | 11.48 | 11.39 | 11.47 |
| Soybea | |||||||
| ns | |||||||
| March | D | 5.78 | 5.86 | 5.894 | 6.064 | 6.09 | 6.24 |
| Corn | |||||||
| Feb | U | 1653.9 | 1701.550 | 1693.90 | 1746 | 1781 | 1814 |
| Gold | |||||||
| Mar | D | 29.89 | 31.29 | 30.87 | 32.75 | 33.91 | 35.13 |
| Silver | |||||||
| Mar | PRD | 317 | 338 | 345 | 357 | 371 | 383 |
| Copper | (D) | ||||||
| Jan | PRD | 95.38 | 98.25 | 95.24 | 100..81 | 103.97 | 104.62 |
| Crude | (D) | ||||||
N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.
Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But whatever you do, stop thinking about any other alternative and use Stops.
********************************************
Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.
Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Charles Kespert
***********************
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN
COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.