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Phone: 800.840.5617
Phone: 312.920.0212
Fax: 855.994.4111


ADDRESS

United Futures Trading Company, Inc.
9247 Broadway
Suite EE
Merrillville, IN 46410

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Retail sales will be a market mover

Top Day Recommendations

12.12.11

Moody’s is saying today that last week’s measures taken at the EU summit don’t do enough to deal with the sovereign debt crisis. Consequently, risk is off this morning with the dollar stronger, bonds higher, gold and oil lower. As mentioned last week, the probable result of the summit would be a “sort of” agreement to muddle through the end of the year to circumnavigate the holidays. Today is a light day in terms eco releases. US equity markets should hold up relatively well compared to other world markets simply due to the stronger dollar. Breaks in short dated US debt maturities well find bids.

To cast an eye to the horizon, retail sales will be a market mover as will the FOMC rate decision tomorrow.

Week of December 12 - December 16

Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Briefing.com Prior Revised
          Forecast Consensus   From
Dec 14:00 Treasury Budget Nov   -$139.0B -$139.5B -  
12   $150.4B  
             
Dec 08:30 Retail Sales Nov   0.8% 0.6% 0.5%  
13    
               
Dec 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Nov   0.6% 0.5% 0.6%  
13    
               
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Briefing.com Prior Revised
          Forecast Consensus   From
Dec 10:00 Business Inventories Oct   0.9% 0.9% 0.0%  
13    
               
Dec 14:15 FOMC Rate Decision Dec   0.25% 0.25% 0.25%  
13    
               
Dec 07:00 MBA Mortgage Index 12/10   NA NA 12.8%  
14    
               
Dec 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Nov   NA NA -1.5%  
14    
               
Dec 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Nov   NA NA -0.2%  
14    
               
Dec 10:30 Crude Inventories 12/10   NA NA 1.336M  
14    
               
Dec 08:30 Initial Claims 12/10   390K 390K 381K  
15    
               
Dec 08:30 Continuing Claims 12/03   3650K 3625K 3583K  
15    
               
Dec 08:30 PPI Nov   0.1% 0.2% -0.3%  
15    
               
Dec 08:30 Core PPI Nov   0.0% 0.1% 0.0%  
15    
               
Dec 08:30 Empire Dec   3.0 3.0 0.61  
15 Manufacturing    
             
Dec 08:30 Current Account Q3   -$111.0B -$110.0B -  
15 Balance   $118.0B  
           
Dec 09:00 Net Long-Term TIC Oct   NA NA $68.6B  
15 Flows    
             
Dec 09:15 Industrial Production Nov   -0.1% 0.2% 0.7%  
15    
               
Dec 09:15 Capacity Utilization Nov   77.7% 77.8% 77.8%  
15    
               
Dec 10:00 Philadelphia Fed Dec   4.0 4.3 3.60  
15    
               
Dec 08:30 CPI Nov   0.1% 0.1% -0.1%  
16    
               
Dec 08:30 Core CPI Nov   0.1% 0.1% 0.1%  
16    
               

Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.

Legend

U is Up

D is Down

PRD is Potential Reversal Day

S2 is Weekly strong support

S1 is Weekly good support

DS is Daily Support

DR is Daily Resistance

R1 is Weekly Good Resistance

R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance

Levels are for the most active futures contract

Daily Support and Resistance

  Trend WS2 WS1 DS DR WR1 WR2
Mar U 1204 1228.50 1232.25 1264.25 1271.75 1290.50
           
ES              
Mar D 2233 2275 2281 2339 2350 2382
           
Nasdaq              
Dec U 127.30 128.15 128.38 129.19 129.77 130.54
           
Yen              
Dec EC U 131.73 132.72 132.90 134.43 134.78 135.85
           
Mar 10 D 128.14 129.04 129.17 130.10 130.16 131.06
           
Year              
               
Mar 30 D 138.20 138.29 140.13 142.11 142.20 144.02
           
Year              
Mar U 10.80 11.19 11.03 11.35 11.46 11.77
           
Soybea              
ns              
March D 5.69 5.81 5.85 6.03 6.05 6.15
           
Corn              
Feb U 1654 1701.5 1694 1726 1781 1814
           
Gold              
Mar D 29.89 31.29 31.16 32.59 33.91 35.13
           
Silver              
Mar U 315 336 349 360 373 389
           
Copper              
Jan U 95.40 98.25 97.87 100.42 102.87 104.62
           
Crude              
               

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.

Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.

Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But whatever you do, stop thinking about any other alternative and use Stops.

********************************************

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.

Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past

performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Charles Kespert

***********************

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE

FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.