Top Day Recommendations
12.12.11
Moody’s is saying today that last week’s measures taken at the EU summit don’t do enough to deal with the sovereign debt crisis. Consequently, risk is off this morning with the dollar stronger, bonds higher, gold and oil lower. As mentioned last week, the probable result of the summit would be a “sort of” agreement to muddle through the end of the year to circumnavigate the holidays. Today is a light day in terms eco releases. US equity markets should hold up relatively well compared to other world markets simply due to the stronger dollar. Breaks in short dated US debt maturities well find bids.
To cast an eye to the horizon, retail sales will be a market mover as will the FOMC rate decision tomorrow.
Week of December 12 - December 16
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com Briefing.com | Prior | Revised | |
| Forecast | Consensus | From | ||||||
| Dec | 14:00 | Treasury Budget | Nov | -$139.0B | -$139.5B | - | ||
| 12 | $150.4B | |||||||
| Dec | 08:30 | Retail Sales | Nov | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.5% | ||
| 13 | ||||||||
| Dec | 08:30 | Retail Sales ex-auto | Nov | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.6% | ||
| 13 | ||||||||
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com Briefing.com | Prior | Revised | |
| Forecast | Consensus | From | ||||||
| Dec | 10:00 | Business Inventories | Oct | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.0% | ||
| 13 | ||||||||
| Dec | 14:15 | FOMC Rate Decision | Dec | 0.25% | 0.25% | 0.25% | ||
| 13 | ||||||||
| Dec | 07:00 | MBA Mortgage Index | 12/10 | NA | NA | 12.8% | ||
| 14 | ||||||||
| Dec | 08:30 | Export Prices ex-ag. | Nov | NA | NA | -1.5% | ||
| 14 | ||||||||
| Dec | 08:30 | Import Prices ex-oil | Nov | NA | NA | -0.2% | ||
| 14 | ||||||||
| Dec | 10:30 | Crude Inventories | 12/10 | NA | NA | 1.336M | ||
| 14 | ||||||||
| Dec | 08:30 | Initial Claims | 12/10 | 390K | 390K | 381K | ||
| 15 | ||||||||
| Dec | 08:30 | Continuing Claims | 12/03 | 3650K | 3625K | 3583K | ||
| 15 | ||||||||
| Dec | 08:30 | PPI | Nov | 0.1% | 0.2% | -0.3% | ||
| 15 | ||||||||
| Dec | 08:30 | Core PPI | Nov | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | ||
| 15 | ||||||||
| Dec | 08:30 | Empire | Dec | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0.61 | ||
| 15 | Manufacturing | |||||||
| Dec | 08:30 | Current Account | Q3 | -$111.0B | -$110.0B | - | ||
| 15 | Balance | $118.0B | ||||||
| Dec | 09:00 | Net Long-Term TIC | Oct | NA | NA | $68.6B | ||
| 15 | Flows | |||||||
| Dec | 09:15 | Industrial Production | Nov | -0.1% | 0.2% | 0.7% | ||
| 15 | ||||||||
| Dec | 09:15 | Capacity Utilization | Nov | 77.7% | 77.8% | 77.8% | ||
| 15 | ||||||||
| Dec | 10:00 | Philadelphia Fed | Dec | 4.0 | 4.3 | 3.60 | ||
| 15 | ||||||||
| Dec | 08:30 | CPI | Nov | 0.1% | 0.1% | -0.1% | ||
| 16 | ||||||||
| Dec | 08:30 | Core CPI | Nov | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | ||
| 16 | ||||||||
Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend
U is Up
D is Down
PRD is Potential Reversal Day
S2 is Weekly strong support
S1 is Weekly good support
DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Weekly Good Resistance
R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance
Levels are for the most active futures contract
Daily Support and Resistance
| Trend | WS2 | WS1 | DS | DR | WR1 | WR2 | |
| Mar | U | 1204 | 1228.50 | 1232.25 | 1264.25 | 1271.75 | 1290.50 |
| ES | |||||||
| Mar | D | 2233 | 2275 | 2281 | 2339 | 2350 | 2382 |
| Nasdaq | |||||||
| Dec | U | 127.30 | 128.15 | 128.38 | 129.19 | 129.77 | 130.54 |
| Yen | |||||||
| Dec EC | U | 131.73 | 132.72 | 132.90 | 134.43 | 134.78 | 135.85 |
| Mar 10 | D | 128.14 | 129.04 | 129.17 | 130.10 | 130.16 | 131.06 |
| Year | |||||||
| Mar 30 | D | 138.20 | 138.29 | 140.13 | 142.11 | 142.20 | 144.02 |
| Year |
| Mar | U | 10.80 | 11.19 | 11.03 | 11.35 | 11.46 | 11.77 |
| Soybea | |||||||
| ns | |||||||
| March | D | 5.69 | 5.81 | 5.85 | 6.03 | 6.05 | 6.15 |
| Corn | |||||||
| Feb | U | 1654 | 1701.5 | 1694 | 1726 | 1781 | 1814 |
| Gold | |||||||
| Mar | D | 29.89 | 31.29 | 31.16 | 32.59 | 33.91 | 35.13 |
| Silver | |||||||
| Mar | U | 315 | 336 | 349 | 360 | 373 | 389 |
| Copper | |||||||
| Jan | U | 95.40 | 98.25 | 97.87 | 100.42 | 102.87 | 104.62 |
| Crude | |||||||
N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.
Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.
Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But whatever you do, stop thinking about any other alternative and use Stops.
********************************************
Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.
Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past
performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Charles Kespert
***********************
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE
FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.