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Phone: 800.840.5617
Phone: 312.920.0212
Fax: 855.994.4111


ADDRESS

United Futures Trading Company, Inc.
9247 Broadway
Suite EE
Merrillville, IN 46410

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Better than expected Spanish debt sale

Top Day Recommendations

12.13.11

Advance RETAIL SALES comes in at +0.2%, less than expected. Stocks rebounded overnight due to a better than expected Spanish debt sale ( they sold more than they had initially figured on) and better than expected German consumer confidence figures. Yesterday saw us back at the October lows for both the EC and gold and they are not doing much in the way of clawing back lost ground this morning. The market should flatten out in front of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. They will come out with their pronouncements about short-term interest rates and their view on the economy at 2:15 this afternoon. Although no one expects surprises, it’s best not to get in the way. The Fed announcement is one instance where it’s better to be late than early.

Week of December 12 - December 16

Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Briefing.com Prior Revised
          Forecast Consensus   From
Dec 14:00 Treasury Budget Nov   -$139.0B -$139.5B -  
12   $150.4B  
             
Dec 08:30 Retail Sales Nov   0.8% 0.6% 0.5%  
13    
               
Dec 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Nov   0.6% 0.5% 0.6%  
13    
               
Dec 10:00 Business Inventories Oct   0.9% 0.9% 0.0%  
13    
               
Dec 14:15 FOMC Rate Decision Dec   0.25% 0.25% 0.25%  
13    
               
Date ET Release For Actual
Dec 07:00 MBA Mortgage Index 12/10  
14  
       
Dec 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Nov  
14  
       
Dec 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Nov  
14  
       
Dec 10:30 Crude Inventories 12/10  
14  
       
Dec 08:30 Initial Claims 12/10  
15  
       
Dec 08:30 Continuing Claims 12/03  
15  
       
Dec 08:30 PPI Nov  
15  
       
Dec 08:30 Core PPI Nov  
15  
       
Dec 08:30 Empire Dec  
15 Manufacturing  
     
Dec 08:30 Current Account Q3  
15 Balance  
     
Dec 09:00 Net Long-Term TIC Oct  
15 Flows  
     
Dec 09:15 Industrial Production Nov  
15  
       
Dec 09:15 Capacity Utilization Nov  
15  
       
Dec 10:00 Philadelphia Fed Dec  
15  
       
Dec 08:30 CPI Nov  
16  
       
Dec 08:30 Core CPI Nov  
16  
       
  Briefing.com Briefing.com Prior
  Forecast Consensus
   
  NA NA 12.8%
  NA NA -1.5%
  NA NA -0.2%
  NA NA 1.336M
  390K 390K 381K
  3650K 3625K 3583K
  0.1% 0.2% -0.3%
  0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
  3.0 3.0 0.61
  -$111.0B -$110.0B -
  $118.0B
     
  NA NA $68.6B
  -0.1% 0.2% 0.7%
  77.7% 77.8% 77.8%
  4.0 4.3 3.60
  0.1% 0.1% -0.1%
  0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Revised

From

Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.

Legend

U is Up

D is Down

PRD is Potential Reversal Day

S2 is Weekly strong support

S1 is Weekly good support

DS is Daily Support

DR is Daily Resistance

R1 is Weekly Good Resistance

R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance

Levels are for the most active futures contract

    Daily Support and Resistance  
               
  Trend WS2 WS1 DS DR WR1 WR2
Mar U 1204 1228.50 1214.50 1249.00 1271.75 1290.50
           
ES              
Mar D 2233 2275 2266.00 2318.00 2350 2382
           
Nasdaq              
Dec U 127.30 128.15 128.07 128.78 129.77 130.54
           
Yen              
Dec EC U 131.73 132.72 131.07 133.21 134.78 135.85
           
Mar 10 D 128.14 129.04 129.25 130.15 130.16 131.06
           
Year              
               
Mar 30 D 138.20 138.29 141.04 142.25 142.20 144.02
           
Year              
Mar U 10.80 11.19 11.09 11.29 11.46 11.77
           
Soybea              
ns              
March D 5.69 5.81 5.86 5.99 6.05 6.15
           
Corn              
Feb U 1654 1701.5 1624 1704 1781 1814
           
Gold              
Mar D 29.89 31.29 30.51 31.89 33.91 35.13
           
Silver              
Mar U 315 336 340 354 373 389
           
Copper              
Jan U 95.40 98.25 96.98 99.12 102.87 104.62
           
Crude              
               

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.

Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.

Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But whatever you do, stop thinking about any other alternative and use Stops.

********************************************

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.

Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

Charles Kespert

***********************

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.