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Industrial capacity and utilization a little soft

Top Day Recommendations

12.15.11

Sorry for the delay. Massive electronic problems. Not systemic just personal. I think they’re fixed. Delusion springs eternal. Several economic numbers released on the market this morning. Mostly strong. Weekly unemployment claims were positive while industrial capacity and utilization a little soft. Empire state manufacturing index strong. Best level since may, I think. Of course yesterday was a technical deluge as market aftermarket plowed through support levels in the wake of a less than robust conclusion to the FOMC meeting and the opinion that the ECB is unwilling to do too little too late to stave the euro zone crisis consequently gold and oil both collapsed as the market decided to D. leverage ahead of the holidays. OPEC raised its production ceiling to 30 million barrels per day as the first change in three years. There was a bit better taste for a Spanish bond auction this morning that there really isn’t saying much. Gold seems intent on banging into 1550 to see what’s there.

Here’s a good spread look at: notes against bonds. We’re heading into good resistance levels that go back to the 2008 meltdown.

Week of December 12 - December 16

Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Briefing.com Prior Revised
          Forecast Consensus   From
Dec 14:00 Treasury Budget Nov   -$139.0B -$139.5B -  
12   $150.4B  
             
Dec 08:30 Retail Sales Nov   0.8% 0.6% 0.5%  
13    
               
Dec 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Nov   0.6% 0.5% 0.6%  
13    
               
Dec 10:00 Business Inventories Oct   0.9% 0.9% 0.0%  
13    
               
Dec 14:15 FOMC Rate Decision Dec   0.25% 0.25% 0.25%  
13    
               
Dec 07:00 MBA Mortgage Index 12/10   NA NA 12.8%  
14    
               
Dec 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Nov   NA NA -1.5%  
14    
               
Dec 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Nov   NA NA -0.2%  
14    
               
Dec 10:30 Crude Inventories 12/10   NA NA 1.336M  
14    
               
Dec 08:30 Initial Claims 12/10   390K 390K 381K  
15    
               
Dec 08:30 Continuing Claims 12/03   3650K 3625K 3583K  
15    
               
Dec 08:30 PPI Nov   0.1% 0.2% -0.3%  
15    
               
Dec 08:30 Core PPI Nov   0.0% 0.1% 0.0%  
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Briefing.com Prior Revised
          Forecast Consensus   From
15                
Dec 08:30 Empire Dec   3.0 3.0 0.61  
15 Manufacturing    
             
Dec 08:30 Current Account Q3   -$111.0B -$110.0B -  
15 Balance   $118.0B  
           
Dec 09:00 Net Long-Term TIC Oct   NA NA $68.6B  
15 Flows    
             
Dec 09:15 Industrial Production Nov   -0.1% 0.2% 0.7%  
15    
               
Dec 09:15 Capacity Utilization Nov   77.7% 77.8% 77.8%  
15    
               
Dec 10:00 Philadelphia Fed Dec   4.0 4.3 3.60  
15    
               
Dec 08:30 CPI Nov   0.1% 0.1% -0.1%  
16    
               
Dec 08:30 Core CPI Nov   0.1% 0.1% 0.1%  
16    
               

Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.

Legend

U is Up

D is Down

PRD is Potential Reversal Day

S2 is Weekly strong support

S1 is Weekly good support

DS is Daily Support

DR is Daily Resistance

R1 is Weekly Good Resistance

R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance        
Levels are for the most active futures contract    
    Daily Support and Resistance  
               
  Trend WS2 WS1 DS DR WR1 WR2
Mar D 1204 1228.50 1197 1221 1271.75 1290.50
           
ES              
Mar D 2233 2275 2305 2264 2350 2382
           
Nasdaq              
Dec D 127.30 128.15 127.89 128.52 129.77 130.54
           
Yen              
Dec EC D 131.73 132.72 129.25 131.15 134.78 135.85
           
Mar 10 U 128.14 129.04 130.13 131.01 130.16 131.06
           
Year              
               
Mar 30 U 138.20 138.29 143.04 145.06 142.20 144.02
           
Year              
Mar U 10.80 11.19 10.99 11.25 11.46 11.77
           
Soybea              
ns              
March D 5.69 5.81 5.74 5.92 6.05 6.15
           
Corn              
Feb D 1654 1701.5 1554 1633 1781 1814
           
Gold              
Mar D 29.89 31.29 27.99 30.49 33.91 35.13
           
Silver              
Mar D 315 336 321 338 373 389
           
Copper              
Jan U 95.40 98.25 92.66 98.78 102.87 104.62
           
Crude              
               

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.

Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.

Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But whatever you do, stop thinking about any other alternative and use Stops.

********************************************

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.

Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Chuck Kespert

***********************

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