Top Day Recommendations
12.15.11
Sorry for the delay. Massive electronic problems. Not systemic just personal. I think they’re fixed. Delusion springs eternal. Several economic numbers released on the market this morning. Mostly strong. Weekly unemployment claims were positive while industrial capacity and utilization a little soft. Empire state manufacturing index strong. Best level since may, I think. Of course yesterday was a technical deluge as market aftermarket plowed through support levels in the wake of a less than robust conclusion to the FOMC meeting and the opinion that the ECB is unwilling to do too little too late to stave the euro zone crisis consequently gold and oil both collapsed as the market decided to D. leverage ahead of the holidays. OPEC raised its production ceiling to 30 million barrels per day as the first change in three years. There was a bit better taste for a Spanish bond auction this morning that there really isn’t saying much. Gold seems intent on banging into 1550 to see what’s there.
Here’s a good spread look at: notes against bonds. We’re heading into good resistance levels that go back to the 2008 meltdown.
Week of December 12 - December 16
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com Briefing.com | Prior | Revised | |
| Forecast | Consensus | From | ||||||
| Dec | 14:00 | Treasury Budget | Nov | -$139.0B | -$139.5B | - | ||
| 12 | $150.4B | |||||||
| Dec | 08:30 | Retail Sales | Nov | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.5% | ||
| 13 | ||||||||
| Dec | 08:30 | Retail Sales ex-auto | Nov | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.6% | ||
| 13 | ||||||||
| Dec | 10:00 | Business Inventories | Oct | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.0% | ||
| 13 | ||||||||
| Dec | 14:15 | FOMC Rate Decision | Dec | 0.25% | 0.25% | 0.25% | ||
| 13 | ||||||||
| Dec | 07:00 | MBA Mortgage Index | 12/10 | NA | NA | 12.8% | ||
| 14 | ||||||||
| Dec | 08:30 | Export Prices ex-ag. | Nov | NA | NA | -1.5% | ||
| 14 | ||||||||
| Dec | 08:30 | Import Prices ex-oil | Nov | NA | NA | -0.2% | ||
| 14 | ||||||||
| Dec | 10:30 | Crude Inventories | 12/10 | NA | NA | 1.336M | ||
| 14 | ||||||||
| Dec | 08:30 | Initial Claims | 12/10 | 390K | 390K | 381K | ||
| 15 | ||||||||
| Dec | 08:30 | Continuing Claims | 12/03 | 3650K | 3625K | 3583K | ||
| 15 | ||||||||
| Dec | 08:30 | PPI | Nov | 0.1% | 0.2% | -0.3% | ||
| 15 | ||||||||
| Dec | 08:30 | Core PPI | Nov | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | ||
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com Briefing.com | Prior | Revised | |
| Forecast | Consensus | From | ||||||
| 15 | ||||||||
| Dec | 08:30 | Empire | Dec | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0.61 | ||
| 15 | Manufacturing | |||||||
| Dec | 08:30 | Current Account | Q3 | -$111.0B | -$110.0B | - | ||
| 15 | Balance | $118.0B | ||||||
| Dec | 09:00 | Net Long-Term TIC | Oct | NA | NA | $68.6B | ||
| 15 | Flows | |||||||
| Dec | 09:15 | Industrial Production | Nov | -0.1% | 0.2% | 0.7% | ||
| 15 | ||||||||
| Dec | 09:15 | Capacity Utilization | Nov | 77.7% | 77.8% | 77.8% | ||
| 15 | ||||||||
| Dec | 10:00 | Philadelphia Fed | Dec | 4.0 | 4.3 | 3.60 | ||
| 15 | ||||||||
| Dec | 08:30 | CPI | Nov | 0.1% | 0.1% | -0.1% | ||
| 16 | ||||||||
| Dec | 08:30 | Core CPI | Nov | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | ||
| 16 | ||||||||
Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend
U is Up
D is Down
PRD is Potential Reversal Day
S2 is Weekly strong support
S1 is Weekly good support
DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Weekly Good Resistance
| R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance | |||||||
| Levels are for the most active futures contract | |||||||
| Daily Support and Resistance | |||||||
| Trend | WS2 | WS1 | DS | DR | WR1 | WR2 | |
| Mar | D | 1204 | 1228.50 | 1197 | 1221 | 1271.75 | 1290.50 |
| ES | |||||||
| Mar | D | 2233 | 2275 | 2305 | 2264 | 2350 | 2382 |
| Nasdaq | |||||||
| Dec | D | 127.30 | 128.15 | 127.89 | 128.52 | 129.77 | 130.54 |
| Yen | |||||||
| Dec EC | D | 131.73 | 132.72 | 129.25 | 131.15 | 134.78 | 135.85 |
| Mar 10 | U | 128.14 | 129.04 | 130.13 | 131.01 | 130.16 | 131.06 |
| Year | |||||||
| Mar 30 | U | 138.20 | 138.29 | 143.04 | 145.06 | 142.20 | 144.02 |
| Year | |||||||
| Mar | U | 10.80 | 11.19 | 10.99 | 11.25 | 11.46 | 11.77 |
| Soybea | |||||||
| ns | |||||||
| March | D | 5.69 | 5.81 | 5.74 | 5.92 | 6.05 | 6.15 |
| Corn | |||||||
| Feb | D | 1654 | 1701.5 | 1554 | 1633 | 1781 | 1814 |
| Gold | |||||||
| Mar | D | 29.89 | 31.29 | 27.99 | 30.49 | 33.91 | 35.13 |
| Silver | |||||||
| Mar | D | 315 | 336 | 321 | 338 | 373 | 389 |
| Copper | |||||||
| Jan | U | 95.40 | 98.25 | 92.66 | 98.78 | 102.87 | 104.62 |
| Crude | |||||||
N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.
Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.
Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But whatever you do, stop thinking about any other alternative and use Stops.
********************************************
Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.
Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Chuck Kespert
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HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM
IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.