12.18.2013
Top Day Market News
The Fed has been 70% of all demand for debt issuance between 7 to 10 years in maturity. That’s the reality of QE2. This can’t go on ad infinitum. The Fed’s balance sheet can’t keep growing without unintended consequences.
Today’s the conclusion of the two day FOMC meeting. Rates will remain unchanged but the key of course will be the mention of taper in the communique at 2 pm. Will it commence immediately or will it be differed? Will the communique generate actionable price action? Some have placed the probability of taper at 60 to 65%. And what size of taper? 2 Billion? 10? 15 Billion? And if all this isn’t enough to have you on edge, the Fed Chairman will have a press conference after the decision to hopefully blow the smoke off the battlefield.
Oh, and by the way, we get housing starts and oil inventories earlier in the day.
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Week of December 16 - December 20 |
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Date |
ET |
Release |
For |
Actual |
Briefing.com Forecast |
Briefing.com Consensus |
Prior |
Revised From |
|
|
Dec 16 |
08:30 |
Empire Manufacturing |
Dec |
|
5.0 |
5.0 |
-2.2 |
|
|
|
Dec 16 |
08:30 |
Productivity-Rev. |
Q3 |
|
2.5% |
2.7% |
1.9% |
|
|
|
Dec 16 |
08:30 |
Unit Labor Costs |
Q3 |
|
-1.0% |
-1.3% |
-0.6% |
|
|
|
Dec 16 |
09:00 |
Net Long-Term TIC |
Oct |
|
NA |
NA |
$25.5B |
|
|
|
Date |
ET |
Release |
For |
Actual |
Briefing.com Forecast |
Briefing.com Consensus |
Prior |
Revised From |
|
Dec 16 |
09:15 |
Industrial Production |
Nov |
|
0.4% |
0.4% |
-0.1% |
|
|
Dec 16 |
09:15 |
Capacity Utilization |
Nov |
|
78.3% |
78.4% |
78.1% |
|
|
Dec 17 |
08:30 |
CPI |
Nov |
|
0.0% |
0.1% |
-0.1% |
|
|
Dec 17 |
08:30 |
Core CPI |
Nov |
|
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
|
Dec 17 |
08:30 |
Current Account Balance |
Q3 |
|
-$101.0B |
-$101.0B |
-$98.9B |
|
|
Dec 17 |
10:00 |
NAHB Housing Market Index |
Dec |
|
55 |
55 |
54 |
|
|
Dec 18 |
07:00 |
MBA Mortgage Index |
12/14 |
|
NA |
NA |
1.0% |
|
|
Dec 18 |
08:30 |
Housing Starts |
Sep |
|
900K |
915K |
891K |
|
|
Dec 18 |
08:30 |
Housing Starts |
Oct |
|
895K |
920K |
NA |
|
|
Dec 18 |
08:30 |
Housing Starts |
Nov |
|
925K |
950K |
NA |
|
|
Dec 18 |
08:30 |
Building Permits |
Nov |
|
975K |
983K |
1034K |
|
|
Dec 18 |
10:30 |
Crude Inventories |
12/14 |
|
NA |
NA |
- 10.585M |
|
|
Dec 18 |
14:00 |
FOMC Rate Decision |
Dec |
|
0.25% |
0.25% |
0.25% |
|
|
Dec 19 |
08:30 |
Initial Claims |
12/14 |
|
335K |
333K |
368K |
|
|
Dec 19 |
08:30 |
Continuing Claims |
12/07 |
|
2750K |
2760K |
2791K |
|
|
Dec 19 |
10:00 |
Existing Home Sales |
Nov |
|
4.98M |
5.00M |
5.12M |
|
|
Dec 19 |
10:00 |
Philadelphia Fed |
Dec |
|
4.0 |
5.0 |
6.5 |
|
|
Dec 19 |
10:00 |
Leading Indicators |
Nov |
|
0.7% |
0.6% |
0.2% |
|
|
Dec 19 |
10:30 |
Natural Gas Inventories |
12/14 |
|
NA |
NA |
-81 bcf |
|
|
Dec 20 |
08:30 |
GDP - Third Estimate |
Q3 |
|
3.7% |
3.6% |
3.6% |
|
|
Dec 20 |
08:30 |
GDP Deflator - Third Estimate |
Q3 |
|
2.0% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
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MARKET PLACE
Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend U is Up
D is Down
PRD is Potential Reversal Day S2 is Weekly strong support S1 is Weekly good support DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Weekly Good Resistance and is calculated once a week on Sunday night
R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance and is calculated once a week on Sunday night
Levels are for the most active futures contract
Daily Support and Resistance
|
|
Trend |
WS2 |
WS1 |
DS |
DR |
WR1 |
WR2 |
|
Mar ES |
D |
1745 |
1766 |
1763 |
1787.50 |
1789 |
1825 |
|
Mar Nasdaq |
D |
3402.25 |
3443 |
3444.25 |
3488 |
3504 |
3552 |
|
Mar Yen |
U |
95.38 |
96.17 |
96.75 |
97.96 |
97.85 |
98.74 |
|
Mar EC |
U |
136.30 |
136.80 |
136.95 |
138.14 |
137.90 |
138.60 |
|
Mar 10 Year Note |
D |
123.09 |
123.30 |
124.00 |
124.28 |
124.24 |
125.06 |
|
Mar 30 Year Bond |
U |
128.13 |
129.01 |
128.25 |
130.18 |
130.10 |
130.31 |
|
Jan Soybean |
U |
12.89 |
13.08 |
13.20 |
13.63 |
13.49 |
13.72 |
|
Mar Corn |
D |
4.14 |
4.20 |
4.18 |
4.32 |
4.35 |
4.46 |
|
Feb Gold |
U |
1193 |
1215 |
1213.60 |
1255 |
1263 |
1289 |
|
March Silver |
U |
18.60 |
19.13 |
19.36 |
20.47 |
20.33 |
21.00 |
|
March Copper |
U |
319 |
325 |
329.50 |
334 |
334 |
337 |
|
Jan Crude |
D |
90.34 |
94.23 |
96.73 |
98.50 |
99.74 |
101.00 |
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