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The Fed’s balance sheet can’t keep growing without unintended consequences

12.18.2013

Top Day Market News

The Fed has been 70% of all demand for debt issuance between 7 to 10 years in maturity. That’s the reality of QE2. This can’t go on ad infinitum. The Fed’s balance sheet can’t keep growing without unintended consequences.

Today’s the conclusion of the two day FOMC meeting. Rates will remain unchanged but the key of course will be the mention of taper in the communique at 2 pm. Will it commence immediately or will it be differed? Will the communique generate actionable price action? Some have placed the probability of taper at 60 to 65%. And what size of taper? 2 Billion? 10? 15 Billion? And if all this isn’t enough to have you on edge, the Fed Chairman will have a press conference after the decision to hopefully blow the smoke off the battlefield.

Oh, and by the way, we get housing starts and oil inventories earlier in the day.


 

Week of December 16 - December 20

Date

ET

Release

For

Actual

Briefing.com Forecast

Briefing.com Consensus

Prior

Revised From

Dec 16

08:30

Empire Manufacturing

Dec

 

5.0

5.0

-2.2

 

Dec 16

08:30

Productivity-Rev.

Q3

 

2.5%

2.7%

1.9%

 

Dec 16

08:30

Unit Labor Costs

Q3

 

-1.0%

-1.3%

-0.6%

 

Dec 16

09:00

Net Long-Term TIC

Oct

 

NA

NA

$25.5B

 

                   

 

Date

ET

Release

For

Actual

Briefing.com Forecast

Briefing.com Consensus

Prior

Revised From

Dec 16

09:15

Industrial Production

Nov

 

0.4%

0.4%

-0.1%

 

Dec 16

09:15

Capacity Utilization

Nov

 

78.3%

78.4%

78.1%

 

Dec 17

08:30

CPI

Nov

 

0.0%

0.1%

-0.1%

 

Dec 17

08:30

Core CPI

Nov

 

0.1%

0.1%

0.1%

 

Dec 17

08:30

Current Account Balance

Q3

 

-$101.0B

-$101.0B

-$98.9B

 

Dec 17

10:00

NAHB Housing Market Index

Dec

 

55

55

54

 

Dec 18

07:00

MBA Mortgage Index

12/14

 

NA

NA

1.0%

 

Dec 18

08:30

Housing Starts

Sep

 

900K

915K

891K

 

Dec 18

08:30

Housing Starts

Oct

 

895K

920K

NA

 

Dec 18

08:30

Housing Starts

Nov

 

925K

950K

NA

 

Dec 18

08:30

Building Permits

Nov

 

975K

983K

1034K

 

Dec 18

10:30

Crude Inventories

12/14

 

NA

NA

- 10.585M

 

Dec 18

14:00

FOMC Rate Decision

Dec

 

0.25%

0.25%

0.25%

 

Dec 19

08:30

Initial Claims

12/14

 

335K

333K

368K

 

Dec 19

08:30

Continuing Claims

12/07

 

2750K

2760K

2791K

 

Dec 19

10:00

Existing Home Sales

Nov

 

4.98M

5.00M

5.12M

 

Dec 19

10:00

Philadelphia Fed

Dec

 

4.0

5.0

6.5

 

Dec 19

10:00

Leading Indicators

Nov

 

0.7%

0.6%

0.2%

 

Dec 19

10:30

Natural Gas Inventories

12/14

 

NA

NA

-81 bcf

 

Dec 20

08:30

GDP - Third Estimate

Q3

 

3.7%

3.6%

3.6%

 

Dec 20

08:30

GDP Deflator - Third  Estimate

Q3

 

2.0%

2.0%

2.0%

 

 

MARKET PLACE


Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.

Legend U is Up

D is Down

PRD is Potential Reversal Day S2 is Weekly strong support S1 is Weekly good support DS is Daily Support

DR is Daily Resistance

R1 is Weekly Good Resistance and is calculated once a week on Sunday night

R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance and is calculated once a week on Sunday night

Levels are for the most active futures contract

Daily Support and Resistance

 

Trend

WS2

WS1

DS

DR

WR1

WR2

Mar ES

D

1745

1766

1763

1787.50

1789

1825

Mar Nasdaq

D

3402.25

3443

3444.25

3488

3504

3552

Mar Yen

U

95.38

96.17

96.75

97.96

97.85

98.74

Mar EC

U

136.30

136.80

136.95

138.14

137.90

138.60

Mar 10 Year Note

D

123.09

123.30

124.00

124.28

124.24

125.06

Mar 30 Year Bond

U

128.13

129.01

128.25

130.18

130.10

130.31

Jan Soybean

U

12.89

13.08

13.20

13.63

13.49

13.72

Mar Corn

D

4.14

4.20

4.18

4.32

4.35

4.46

Feb Gold

U

1193

1215

1213.60

1255

1263

1289

March Silver

U

18.60

19.13

19.36

20.47

20.33

21.00

March Copper

U

319

325

329.50

334

334

337

Jan Crude

D

90.34

94.23

96.73

98.50

99.74

101.00