12.19.2013
Top Day Market News
The Fed begins the taper by announcing that they will be reducing their asset purchase plan by 10 billion a month beginning in January. This created a high vol day with eventual directional trading: stocks higher (on the idea that interest rates will be kept terminally low), the dollar stronger on the idea that with the FED cutting back its bond purchases interest rates will have to back up to attract buyers, metals lower on the prospect for higher rates and/or higher stocks and finally, a stronger dollar. Through all this frantic activity, the yield curve steepened and that may be one thing euphoric stocks overlooked. The press conference by the Chairman after the meeting was reflective and candid most of the time. The Chairman’s assurance that rates will remain low for the foreseeable future even as unemployment moves below 6.5% has to be taken with a grain of salt, maybe even a box of Morton’s as occasionally, just occasionally the market sets interest rates, not the Fed.
Traders are looking at BP/Aussie crosses and Swiss/CAD spreads.
|
Week of December 16 - December 20 |
||||||||
Date |
ET |
Release |
For |
Actual |
Briefing.com Forecast |
Briefing.com Consensus |
Prior |
Revised From |
|
Dec 16 |
08:30 |
Empire Manufacturing |
Dec |
|
5.0 |
5.0 |
-2.2 |
|
|
Date |
ET |
Release |
For |
Actual |
Briefing.com Forecast |
Briefing.com Consensus |
Prior |
Revised From |
Dec 16 |
08:30 |
Productivity-Rev. |
Q3 |
|
2.5% |
2.7% |
1.9% |
|
Dec 16 |
08:30 |
Unit Labor Costs |
Q3 |
|
-1.0% |
-1.3% |
-0.6% |
|
Dec 16 |
09:00 |
Net Long-Term TIC Flows |
Oct |
|
NA |
NA |
$25.5B |
|
Dec 16 |
09:15 |
Industrial Production |
Nov |
|
0.4% |
0.4% |
-0.1% |
|
Dec 16 |
09:15 |
Capacity Utilization |
Nov |
|
78.3% |
78.4% |
78.1% |
|
Dec 17 |
08:30 |
CPI |
Nov |
|
0.0% |
0.1% |
-0.1% |
|
Dec 17 |
08:30 |
Core CPI |
Nov |
|
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
Dec 17 |
08:30 |
Current Account Balance |
Q3 |
|
-$101.0B |
-$101.0B |
-$98.9B |
|
Dec 17 |
10:00 |
NAHB Housing Market Index |
Dec |
|
55 |
55 |
54 |
|
Dec 18 |
07:00 |
MBA Mortgage Index |
12/14 |
|
NA |
NA |
1.0% |
|
Dec 18 |
08:30 |
Housing Starts |
Sep |
|
900K |
915K |
891K |
|
Dec 18 |
08:30 |
Housing Starts |
Oct |
|
895K |
920K |
NA |
|
Dec 18 |
08:30 |
Housing Starts |
Nov |
|
925K |
950K |
NA |
|
Dec 18 |
08:30 |
Building Permits |
Nov |
|
975K |
983K |
1034K |
|
Dec 18 |
10:30 |
Crude Inventories |
12/14 |
|
NA |
NA |
- 10.585M |
|
Dec 18 |
14:00 |
FOMC Rate Decision |
Dec |
|
0.25% |
0.25% |
0.25% |
|
Dec 19 |
08:30 |
Initial Claims |
12/14 |
|
335K |
333K |
368K |
|
Dec 19 |
08:30 |
Continuing Claims |
12/07 |
|
2750K |
2760K |
2791K |
|
Dec 19 |
10:00 |
Existing Home Sales |
Nov |
|
4.98M |
5.00M |
5.12M |
|
Dec 19 |
10:00 |
Philadelphia Fed |
Dec |
|
4.0 |
5.0 |
6.5 |
|
Dec 19 |
10:00 |
Leading Indicators |
Nov |
|
0.7% |
0.6% |
0.2% |
|
Dec 19 |
10:30 |
Natural Gas Inventories |
12/14 |
|
NA |
NA |
-81 bcf |
|
Dec 20 |
08:30 |
GDP - Third Estimate |
Q3 |
|
3.7% |
3.6% |
3.6% |
|
Date |
ET |
Release |
For |
Actual |
Briefing.com Forecast |
Briefing.com Consensus |
Prior |
Revised From |
Dec 20 |
08:30 |
GDP Deflator - Third Estimate |
Q3 |
|
2.0% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
|
MARKET PLACE
Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend U is Up
D is Down
PRD is Potential Reversal Day S2 is Weekly strong support S1 is Weekly good support DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Weekly Good Resistance and is calculated once a week on Sunday night
R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance and is calculated once a week on Sunday night
Levels are for the most active futures contract
Daily Support and Resistance
|
Trend |
WS2 |
WS1 |
DS |
DR |
WR1 |
WR2 |
Mar ES |
D |
1745 |
1766 |
1774 |
1820 |
1789 |
1825 |
Mar Nasdaq |
D |
3402.25 |
3443 |
3445 |
3540 |
3504 |
3552 |
Mar Yen |
U |
95.38 |
96.17 |
94.76 |
97.37 |
97.85 |
98.74 |
Mar EC |
U |
136.30 |
136.80 |
135.85 |
138.44 |
137.90 |
138.60 |
Mar 10 Year Note |
D |
123.09 |
123.30 |
123.09 |
124.24 |
124.24 |
125.06 |
Mar 30 Year Bond |
U |
128.13 |
129.01 |
128.11 |
130.06 |
130.10 |
130.31 |
Jan Soybean |
U |
12.89 |
13.08 |
12.35 |
13.30 |
13.49 |
13.72 |
Mar Corn |
D |
4.14 |
4.20 |
128.11 |
130.06 |
4.35 |
4.46 |
Feb Gold |
U |
1193 |
1215 |
1203 |
1247 |
1263 |
1289 |
March Silver |
U |
18.60 |
19.13 |
1908 |
2040 |
20.33 |
21.00 |
March Copper |
U |
319 |
325 |
329 |
333 |
334 |
337 |
Jan Crude |
D |
90.34 |
94.23 |
9245 |
98.48 |
99.74 |
101.00 |
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