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Traders are looking at BP/Aussie crosses and Swiss/CAD spreads

12.19.2013

Top Day Market News

The Fed begins the taper by announcing that they will be reducing their asset purchase plan by 10 billion a month beginning in January. This created a high vol day with eventual directional trading: stocks higher (on the idea that interest rates will be kept terminally low), the dollar stronger on the idea that with the FED cutting back its bond purchases interest rates will have to back up to attract buyers, metals lower on the prospect for higher rates and/or higher stocks and finally, a stronger dollar. Through all this frantic activity, the yield curve steepened and that may be one thing euphoric stocks overlooked. The press conference by the Chairman after the meeting was reflective and candid most of the time. The Chairman’s assurance that rates will remain low for the foreseeable future even as unemployment moves below 6.5% has to be taken with a grain of salt, maybe even a box of Morton’s as occasionally, just occasionally the market sets interest rates, not the Fed.

Traders are looking at BP/Aussie crosses and Swiss/CAD spreads.


 

Week of December 16 - December 20

Date

ET

Release

For

Actual

Briefing.com Forecast

Briefing.com Consensus

Prior

Revised From

Dec 16

08:30

Empire Manufacturing

Dec

 

5.0

5.0

-2.2

 

                   

 

Date

ET

Release

For

Actual

Briefing.com Forecast

Briefing.com Consensus

Prior

Revised From

Dec 16

08:30

Productivity-Rev.

Q3

 

2.5%

2.7%

1.9%

 

Dec 16

08:30

Unit Labor Costs

Q3

 

-1.0%

-1.3%

-0.6%

 

Dec 16

09:00

Net Long-Term TIC Flows

Oct

 

NA

NA

$25.5B

 

Dec 16

09:15

Industrial Production

Nov

 

0.4%

0.4%

-0.1%

 

Dec 16

09:15

Capacity Utilization

Nov

 

78.3%

78.4%

78.1%

 

Dec 17

08:30

CPI

Nov

 

0.0%

0.1%

-0.1%

 

Dec 17

08:30

Core CPI

Nov

 

0.1%

0.1%

0.1%

 

Dec 17

08:30

Current Account Balance

Q3

 

-$101.0B

-$101.0B

-$98.9B

 

Dec 17

10:00

NAHB Housing Market Index

Dec

 

55

55

54

 

Dec 18

07:00

MBA Mortgage Index

12/14

 

NA

NA

1.0%

 

Dec 18

08:30

Housing Starts

Sep

 

900K

915K

891K

 

Dec 18

08:30

Housing Starts

Oct

 

895K

920K

NA

 

Dec 18

08:30

Housing Starts

Nov

 

925K

950K

NA

 

Dec 18

08:30

Building Permits

Nov

 

975K

983K

1034K

 

Dec 18

10:30

Crude Inventories

12/14

 

NA

NA

- 10.585M

 

Dec 18

14:00

FOMC Rate Decision

Dec

 

0.25%

0.25%

0.25%

 

Dec 19

08:30

Initial Claims

12/14

 

335K

333K

368K

 

Dec 19

08:30

Continuing Claims

12/07

 

2750K

2760K

2791K

 

Dec 19

10:00

Existing Home Sales

Nov

 

4.98M

5.00M

5.12M

 

Dec 19

10:00

Philadelphia Fed

Dec

 

4.0

5.0

6.5

 

Dec 19

10:00

Leading Indicators

Nov

 

0.7%

0.6%

0.2%

 

Dec 19

10:30

Natural Gas Inventories

12/14

 

NA

NA

-81 bcf

 

Dec 20

08:30

GDP - Third Estimate

Q3

 

3.7%

3.6%

3.6%

 

 

Date

ET

Release

For

Actual

Briefing.com Forecast

Briefing.com Consensus

Prior

Revised From

Dec 20

08:30

GDP Deflator - Third  Estimate

Q3

 

2.0%

2.0%

2.0%

 


 

MARKET PLACE


Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.

Legend U is Up

D is Down

PRD is Potential Reversal Day S2 is Weekly strong support S1 is Weekly good support DS is Daily Support

DR is Daily Resistance

R1 is Weekly Good Resistance and is calculated once a week on Sunday night

R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance and is calculated once a week on Sunday night

Levels are for the most active futures contract


Daily Support and Resistance

 

Trend

WS2

WS1

DS

DR

WR1

WR2

Mar ES

D

1745

1766

1774

1820

1789

1825

Mar Nasdaq

D

3402.25

3443

3445

3540

3504

3552

Mar Yen

U

95.38

96.17

94.76

97.37

97.85

98.74

Mar EC

U

136.30

136.80

135.85

138.44

137.90

138.60

Mar 10 Year Note

D

123.09

123.30

123.09

124.24

124.24

125.06

Mar 30 Year Bond

U

128.13

129.01

128.11

130.06

130.10

130.31

Jan Soybean

U

12.89

13.08

12.35

13.30

13.49

13.72

Mar Corn

D

4.14

4.20

128.11

130.06

4.35

4.46

Feb Gold

U

1193

1215

1203

1247

1263

1289

March Silver

U

18.60

19.13

1908

2040

20.33

21.00

March Copper

U

319

325

329

333

334

337

Jan Crude

D

90.34

94.23

9245

98.48

99.74

101.00