Top Day Recommendations
12.20.11
German IFO better than expected. European stocks are higher on this. Asia was also higher. This is the second consecutive monthly advance for German business confidence. This gauge of business confidence polls 7000 executives. Another economic positive today was housing starts and building permits in the United
States. Spain also sold €5.64 billion worth of three- month and six-month bills at a better than expected rate. Europe is also bolstered its ability to deal with the current crisis unmoving €150 billion to the IMF. The UK abstained from contribution, however. Consequently, US stocks are higher the dollar was weaker bonds are lower gold is higher as is crude oil. Still waiting for Russia to insert itself into the euro zone crisis.
Week of December 19 - December 23
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com Briefing.com | Prior | Revised | |
| Forecast | Consensus | From | ||||||
| Dec | 10:00 | NAHB Housing | Dec | 19 | 19 | 20 | ||
| 19 | Market Index | |||||||
| Dec | 08:30 | Housing Starts | Nov | 600K | 627K | 628K | ||
| 20 | ||||||||
| Dec | 08:30 | Building Permits | Nov | 625K | 633K | 653K | ||
| 20 | ||||||||
| Dec | 07:00 | MBA Mortgage Index | 12/17 | NA | NA | 4.1% | ||
| 21 | ||||||||
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com Briefing.com | Prior | Revised | |
| Forecast | Consensus | From | ||||||
| Dec | 10:00 | Existing Home Sales | Nov | 5.20M | 5.03M | 4.97M | ||
| 21 | ||||||||
| Dec | 10:30 | Crude Inventories | 12/17 | NA | NA | - | ||
| 21 | 1.932M | |||||||
| Dec | 08:30 | Initial Claims | 12/17 | 380K | 380K | 366K | ||
| 22 | ||||||||
| Dec | 08:30 | Continuing Claims | 12/10 | 3650K | 3650K | 3603K | ||
| 22 | ||||||||
| Dec | 08:30 | GDP - Third Estimate | Q3 | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | ||
| 22 | ||||||||
| Dec | 08:30 | GDP Deflator - Third | Q3 | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | ||
| 22 | Estimate | |||||||
| Dec | 09:55 | Michigan Sentiment - | Dec | 68.0 | 68.0 | 67.7 | ||
| 22 | Final | |||||||
| Dec | 10:00 | Leading Indicators | Nov | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.9% | ||
| 22 | ||||||||
| Dec | 10:00 | FHFA Housing Price | Oct | NA | NA | -0.1% | ||
| 22 | Index | |||||||
| Dec | 08:30 | Durable Orders | Nov | 3.2% | 2.0% | -0.5% | -0.7% | |
| 23 | ||||||||
| Dec | Durable Goods | |||||||
| 08:30 | Orders -ex | Dec | -0.2% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 0.7% | ||
| 23 | ||||||||
| Transportation | ||||||||
| Dec | 08:30 | Personal Income | Nov | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.4% | ||
| 23 | ||||||||
| Dec | 08:30 | Personal Spending | Nov | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | ||
| 23 | ||||||||
| Dec | 08:30 | PCE Prices - Core | Nov | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | ||
| 23 | ||||||||
| Dec | 10:00 | New Home Sales | Nov | 315K | 313K | 307K | ||
| 23 | ||||||||
Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend
U is Up
D is Down
PRD is Potential Reversal Day
S2 is Weekly strong support
S1 is Weekly good support
DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Weekly Good Resistance
R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance
Levels are for the most active futures contract
| Daily Support and Resistance | |||||||
| Trend | WS2 | WS1 | DS | DR | WR1 | WR2 | |
| Mar | D | 1164 | 1187 | 1190 | 1214 | 1244 | 1277 |
| ES | |||||||
| Mar | D | 2149 | 2191 | 2195 | 2240 | 2298 | 2363 |
| Nasdaq | |||||||
| Mar | D | 127.76 | 128.62 | 127.41 | 129.28 | 129.18 | 129.66 |
| Yen | |||||||
| Mar | D | 127.08 | 128.72 | 129.95 | 130.56 | 132.93 | 135.50 |
| EC | |||||||
| Mar 10 | U | 129.01 | 130.31 | 130.25 | 131.16 | 131.25 | 132. 13 |
| Year | |||||||
| Mar 30 | U | 139.02 | 142.06 | 145.05 | 146.20 | 146.31 | 148.22 |
| Year | |||||||
| Mar | U | 10.92 | 11.16 | 11.39 | 11.56 | 11.51 | 11.63 |
| Soybea | |||||||
| ns | |||||||
| March | PRD | 5.61 | 5.72 | 5.88 | 6.08 | 5.85 | 6.12 |
| Corn | (U) | ||||||
| Feb | D | 1471 | 1536 | 1584 | 1610 | 1692 | 1783 |
| Gold | |||||||
| Mar | D | 25.87 | 27.80 | 28.43 | 29.55 | 31.98 | 34.23 |
| Silver | |||||||
| Mar | D | 304 | 319 | 326 | 335 | 353 | 372 |
| Copper | |||||||
| Feb | U | 8730 | 90.65 | 93.00 | 94.86 | 99.40 | Wow |
| 4.80 | |||||||
| Crude | |||||||
N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.
Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But whatever you do, stop thinking about any other alternative and use Stops.
********************************************
Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.
Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Charles Kespert
***********************
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE
FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.