Top Day Recommendations
12.22.11
Running a tad late on Xmass week. Weekly jobless claims better than expected while Q3 estimate of GDP a bit of a non event. Mario Draghi will speak today on the heels of the greater than expected liquidity injection. Yesterday’s crude inventories saw a plunge of 10 million barrels leaving supplies at their lowest levels in 2 years. There should be a caveat however. Refiners are taxed year end on their inventory so they want as little product as possible on hand on the last day of December. Trading population continues to thin.
Week of December 19 - December 23
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com Briefing.com | Prior | Revised | |
| Forecast | Consensus | From | ||||||
| Dec | 10:00 | NAHB Housing | Dec | 19 | 19 | 20 | ||
| 19 | Market Index | |||||||
| Dec | 08:30 | Housing Starts | Nov | 600K | 627K | 628K | ||
| 20 | ||||||||
| Dec | 08:30 | Building Permits | Nov | 625K | 633K | 653K | ||
| 20 | ||||||||
| Dec | 07:00 | MBA Mortgage Index | 12/17 | NA | NA | 4.1% | ||
| 21 | ||||||||
| Dec | 10:00 | Existing Home Sales | Nov | 5.20M | 5.03M | 4.97M | ||
| 21 | ||||||||
| Dec | 10:30 | Crude Inventories | 12/17 | NA | NA | - | ||
| 21 | 1.932M | |||||||
| Dec | 08:30 | Initial Claims | 12/17 | 380K | 380K | 366K | ||
| 22 | ||||||||
| Dec | 08:30 | Continuing Claims | 12/10 | 3650K | 3650K | 3603K | ||
| 22 | ||||||||
| Dec | 08:30 | GDP - Third Estimate | Q3 | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | ||
| 22 | ||||||||
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com Briefing.com | Prior | Revised | |
| Forecast | Consensus | From | ||||||
| Dec | 08:30 | GDP Deflator - Third | Q3 | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | ||
| 22 | Estimate | |||||||
| Dec | 09:55 | Michigan Sentiment - | Dec | 68.0 | 68.0 | 67.7 | ||
| 22 | Final | |||||||
| Dec | 10:00 | Leading Indicators | Nov | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.9% | ||
| 22 | ||||||||
| Dec | 10:00 | FHFA Housing Price | Oct | NA | NA | -0.1% | ||
| 22 | Index | |||||||
| Dec | 08:30 | Durable Orders | Nov | 3.2% | 2.0% | -0.5% | -0.7% | |
| 23 | ||||||||
| Dec | 08:30 | Personal Income | Nov | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 23 | |||||||
| Dec | 08:30 | Personal Spending | Nov | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 23 | |||||||
| Dec | 08:30 | PCE Prices - Core | Nov | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 23 | |||||||
| Dec | 10:00 | New Home Sales | Nov | 315K | 313K | 307K | |
| 23 |
| Dec | Durable Goods | |||||||
| 08:30 | Orders -ex | Dec | -0.2% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 0.7% | ||
| 23 | ||||||||
| Transportation | ||||||||
Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend
U is Up
D is Down
PRD is Potential Reversal Day
S2 is Weekly strong support
S1 is Weekly good support
| DS is Daily Support | |||||||
| DR is Daily Resistance | |||||||
| R1 is Weekly Good Resistance | |||||||
| R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance | |||||||
| Levels are for the most active futures contract | |||||||
| Daily Support and Resistance | |||||||
| Trend | WS2 | WS1 | DS | DR | WR1 | WR2 | |
| Mar | PRD | 1164 | 1187 | 1223 | 1249 | 1244 | 1277 |
| ES | (U) | ||||||
| Mar | D | 2149 | 2191 | 2208 | 2280 | 2298 | 2363 |
| Nasdaq | |||||||
| Mar | D | 127.76 | 128.62 | 128.01 | 128.82 | 129.18 | 129.66 |
| Yen | |||||||
| Mar | D | 127.08 | 128.72 | 129.88 | 131.74 | 132.93 | 135.50 |
| EC | |||||||
| Mar 10 | PRD | 129.01 | 130.31 | 130.05 | 130.24 | 131.25 | 132. 13 |
| Year | (D) | ||||||
| Mar 30 | PRD | 139.02 | 142.06 | 142.22 | 144.05 | 146.31 | 148.22 |
| Year | (D) | ||||||
| Mar | U | 10.92 | 11.16 | 11.47 | 11.73 | 11.51 | 11.63 |
| Soybea | |||||||
| ns | |||||||
| March | U | 5.61 | 5.72 | 6.05 | 6.23 | 5.85 | 6.12 |
| Corn | |||||||
| Feb | D | 1471 | 1536 | 1599.60 | 1635 | 1692 | 1783 |
| Gold | |||||||
| Mar | D | 25.87 | 27.80 | 28.84 | 29.92 | 31.98 | 34.23 |
| Silver | |||||||
| Mar | PRD | 304 | 319 | 335 | 343 | 353 | 372 |
| Copper | (U) | ||||||
| Feb | U | 8730 | 90.65 | 97.23 | 99.68 | 99.40 | Wow |
| Crude | 4.80 | ||||||
N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.
Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.
Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But whatever you do, stop thinking about any other alternative and use Stops.
********************************************
Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.
Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results
Charles Kespert
***********************
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO
HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.